Voting Decisions and Racialized Fluidity in South Africa’s Metropolitan Municipalities

Abstract Do racial identities determine voting behaviour in post-apartheid South Africa? To address this question, we draw from a representative sample of 3,905 registered voters five metropolitan municipalities: Johannesburg, Tshwane, Durban, Cape Town, and Nelson Mandela Bay. Our findings are mixed. On the one hand, Black were significantly more likely to vote for African National Congress, whereas Coloured, Indian, especially white Democratic Alliance. This contrast comes into particular focus when examine how acted over course three-election period. other race was far guaranteed predictor, not least because many chose abstain voting—a trend that extended, though unevenly, all groups. Importantly, though, electorate did split between party loyalists consistent abstainers. Instead, fluidity predominated: About half changed positions elections, either by switching parties or abstaining. thus demonstrate what call ‘racialized fluidity’: Many changing their decision election next, but aggregate, identity remains correlated with decisions.